Poll: Democrats have slight leads, but top races close

Incumbent Democrats hold small leads in Nevada’s highly contested governor and U.S. Senate races, according to an AARP-commissioned poll published Thursday.

But those leads are well within the margin of error, showing both races remain close about two months before Election Day.

Gov. Steve Sisolak was polling ahead of Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo among all likely voters surveyed (41 percent to 38 percent), and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto held a 4-point edge over Republican Adam Laxalt, according to the report.

About 1 in 5 people questioned about the governor’s race were voting for someone else, “none of these candidates,” or were undecided, according to pollsters.

But in a head-to-head matchup between just the two major-party candidates, Lombardo, a Republican, was besting the governor by two points (48 percent to 46 percent).

In the U.S. Senate race, the head-to-head match question cut Cortez Masto’s lead over Laxalt, the former Nevada attorney general, to just one point (48 percent to 47 percent).

AARP commissioned the bipartisan Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research firm to conduct the poll Aug. 16-24. Pollsters interviewed 1,332 likely Nevada voters, oversampling those who were 50 and older, along with those in that age group who identified as Hispanic, AARP said. The English and Spanish surveys were conducted over landline calls (30 percent), cellphone calls (35 percent) and text messaging (30 percent).

The margin of error was estimated between 3.4 percentage points and 4.9 percentage points.

Other findings

Among Republican voters surveyed, the three top statewide issues were inflation (32 percent), immigration (16 percent), and election security (14 percent), according to the poll. For Democrats, they were inflation (13 percent), jobs and the economy (12 percent), and the environment (12 percent).

With national, senate-related issues, polled Republicans were most worried about immigration (22 percent), taxes and spending (18 percent) and inflation (17 percent). For Democrats, the figures showed the top three issues were Social Security and Medicare (18 percent), abortion (15 percent), and inflation (13 percent).

Lombardo had a 1 percentage point lead among voters age 50 and older. Those same voters put the U.S. Senate race in a tie at 44 percent. That “crucial” voting bloc made up nearly 60 percent of the Nevada vote during the 2018 midterm elections, AARP said.

“Not only are the voters 50 plus going to be the largest share of the electorate, but they are more motivated to vote, which can make them to be even larger, and why both campaigns in the governor’s race and the senate race need to pay attention to the voters 50 plus because they will be the deciders in this election,” pollster Bob Ward told reporters Thursday.

The majority of the coveted Latino vote is still going to Democrats, but the lead has been shrinking the past couple of election cycles, and it’s following a national trend, pollster Matt Hogan said.

In a full ballot among all likely Latino voters polled, Sisolak had a 14-point lead, while Cortez Masto, the first Latina ever elected to the U.S. Senate, was besting Laxalt by 11 percentage points, according to the poll. When it comes to Latinos over age 50, the advantage drops to single digits for both races.

Americans are not pleased with the direction the country is heading, and it’s the same for Nevadans, poll figures show. Three out of four United States voters were dissatisfied, while that figure among Nevadans was 62 percent.

President Joe Biden had a disapproval job rating of 58 percent, compared with the 40 percent who approve of him, while former President Donald Trump had a “recalled” approval rating of 49 percent, the same as those who disapproved.

The four candidates also are underwater with their favorability rating among all likely voters, with Cortez Masto doing the best with a 45 percent approval rating compared with the 48 percent who do not approve of her image.

Contact Ricardo Torres-Cortez at rtorres@reviewjournal.com. Follow him on Twitter @rickytwrites.