At the presidential prom, South Carolina cuts in on Nevada

The latest political dance in Nevada is showing once again that each of the state's two major parties have two left feet.

The presidential caucus shuffle playing out largely to the East will keep toes tapping here up until the holidays.

For Nevada Republicans, it'll largely be dancing with themselves as they struggle to turn the not-so-steady trickle of candidate visits into something relevant before the big 2008 election. Nevada Democrats, on the other hand, will continue to have to dress up the ol' Battle Born ax into a wallflower worth courtin'.

The decision to move Nevada's presidential caucuses up to Jan. 19 -- between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary -- was supposed to give the Silver State new swagger in narrowing the Democratic and Republican fields. But national pundits are still focused on the South as the decisive battleground in the nominating process.

So the decision last week by South Carolina Republicans to push up their primary a full three weeks has observers renewing focus on the old guard.

The South Carolina move incensed the "first" states, New Hampshire and Iowa, because each has a law requiring its presidential courtship to be the country's first. New Hampshire, which is currently scheduled to hold its primary Jan. 22, would have to go before South Carolina, and, as it stands, Nevada. Iowa, meanwhile, could hold its caucus with carolers in mid-December just to secure its first-in-the-nation status.

The difference between second and third here is huge. Going by the original schedule, Nevada Democrats would vote a week after Iowa and days before New Hampshire, giving the state a real chance to impact votes in New Hampshire and beyond. The state GOP feared the impact such kingmaking process would have on the entire 2008 ticket and hastily scrambled to schedule its caucus on the same day, Jan. 19.

But just announcing the date hasn't really won the Nevada GOP many suitors. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will make his first Nevada campaign trip Monday to Elko. With the exception of fundraising events and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's not very impromptu, but very PC shopping excursion near Summerlin, Republicans haven't had much face time in Las Vegas.

Even Arizona Sen. John McCain, who spoke at the Clark County Lincoln Day dinner and pressed flesh in Elko, isn't running his national campaign as if Nevada matters.

Now, instead of catching up to the local Democrats, Nevada Republicans stand to fall way behind in the battle that matters -- battleground vote 2008. Sure, the eventual nominee will make the requisite trips here by the time next fall arrives, but Nevadans will have already seen the Democratic ticket dozens of times.

That's not how it was supposed to play out, even in the wildest nightmares of the Republicans who successfully advocated the local GOP move up its caucus date. They're no longer worried about being overshadowed in the caucus process -- Republicans might get overlooked next November, painting the state blue instead of red.

Not all statistics bear this out, but Nevada is trending to the left. Four of the six statewide constitutional offices were won by Democrats last year, and Democrats made considerable in-roads in two congressional races narrowly won by Republicans.

The trend is so evident, you need only look up the voting record of Republican Rep. Jon Porter to see how he'll run for re-election next year. Not only is he not voting lockstep with the House GOP, he's starting to desert the Bush administration, calling for Alberto Gonzales' resignation.

But Democrats needed a wildly successful caucus here to keep the state trending left.

It's easy for the average working Nevadan to tune out, but it's almost impossible to miss the Democratic candidates. They're here every week. If you're a member of the Culinary union, you've seen most of the big contenders five or six times apiece. There have also been public events for most of the Democratic candidates.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has made Nevada his do-or-die state, spending $170,000 on staff here and raising the most money within the state of any Democratic candidate last quarter.

The problem with that strategy is that Nevada may not be the state to die for anymore. If Richardson treads only lightly in New Hampshire and finds himself way behind after the Iowa and South Carolina votes, he can't expect to parlay a good showing in Nevada into something beneficial in much larger states.

If Nevada finds itself tied for third with South Carolina, any bump Richardson would get here would quickly be erased by the money-plays Giga Tuesday -- Feb. 5 -- when a number of delegate-rich states all vote.

For now, both local parties appear happy to watch the events from afar. The state GOP says it's waiting for all "the dominos to fall." The state Democrats say they'll protect the integrity of the early vote.

But the dynamics have already changed on them, and instead of a snappy salsa beat, Jan. 19 might better be accompanied with a bluegrass ballad for a state lost in the caucus shuffle.

Erin Neff's column runs Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.