Clinton’s star power, organization have built early lead in Nevada

Could Nevada already be Sen. Hillary Clinton's to lose?

With more than eight months to go before Nevada's Democratic presidential caucus, it's hard to imagine anyone has it locked up. But there Clinton is, a solid 24 points up on her nearest competitors, according to a poll conducted for the Review-Journal. Even if you twist the 6-point margin of error all the way against her and all the way in favor of Sen. Barack Obama, she's still up on him by 13 points.

Eight months is a lifetime in politics, but timing can also be the lifeblood of the game.

Clinton might have enjoyed a bit of a bounce in this poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. She drew 3,500 people to a Reno high school Sunday and was still reaping media coverage as the pollster made calls to registered Democrats.

But that doesn't explain the Obama bounce the other way. In a March statewide poll conducted for the Reno Gazette-Journal, 20 percent of Democrats said they backed Obama to 32 percent for Clinton. Perhaps Clinton picked up 5 points from her Reno trip last weekend. Obama must have lost his somewhere along with his Nevada strategy.

The Clinton visit to Reno was a success in its own right thanks in part to the campaign's organization and, of course, the candidate's star power.

But it also served as a reminder to Northern Nevada of who hasn't been there.

When the nation's first presidential forum was held in Carson City in February, each of the Democratic candidates was there, and many held other events and met with voters and key constituencies.

Obama was MIA. And it wasn't necessarily because he had other events. He flew over the Northern Nevada event on his way from San Francisco to Iowa. Two other candidates who attended the Carson City forum had events outside the region later that evening, including one who made it back to Iowa. Nevada may be new to caucus politics -- the Silver State is enjoying national attention in a wide-open presidential race because of the Democratic Party's decision to move Nevada's event up to Jan. 19, right after Iowa's -- but it knows a snub as well as any Hawkeye.

Maybe Obama's one hit (the political kumbaya he's been hyping since 2004) just isn't going to be enough. Maybe Democrats want to hear more specifics and are starting to move past who voted for what in Iraq in favor of how to get us the hell out.

But you don't get to be the clear front-runner just because you visit a state right before a poll is taken. Clinton has a huge advantage in Nevada fundraising, in organization and in volunteers. (And as a personal aside, she's got a better phone list because her campaign is the only one that seems able to find this inveterate Democratic primary voter.)

Hilarie Grey, Clinton's spokeswoman in Nevada, said the campaign has more than 100 volunteers who have been making calls statewide for several weeks. Some of the calls test to see whether the voter supports Clinton. Others look for volunteers or invite voters to events.

It doesn't hurt to have Rory Reid leading the charge for you, either. Sure, he's the sitting chairman of the Clark County Commissionson and the son of U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. But he's also the former chairman of the Nevada Democratic Party. He knows how to raise money and how to run a statewide campaign.

The organizational advantage is only going to help her lead get larger. In addition to Reid, she's got the Las Vegas Sun's endorsement locked up thanks to her longtime friendship with Editor Brian Greenspun.

Clinton's OK on Nevada issues, too, whether it's her emphasis on education; her past attempt to reform health care or her opposition to the Yucca Mountain Project. Obama didn't mention the planned nuclear waste repository during his public rally in Las Vegas, although his campaign released a sound-science statement after the event.

It would be nice to talk with him about it, especially because his state, Illinois, has more nuclear power plants than anyone, and probably the most waste.

Clinton will continue to take away Obama support here, particularly from black voters who adore her husband. And there's that not-so-small matter of Bill Clinton having won Nevada twice.

If anything, Clinton will likely have to watch out for former Sen. John Edwards, who's in a statistical tie for second with Obama, according to the Review-Journal's poll.

Although Edwards doesn't have a solid Nevada organization, he will tap into the labor vote and should give Clinton a run in Reno. Edwards has visited Nevada frequently since the 2004 race and helped push the state's minimum wage initiative, which was approved by voters last year.

The only other candidate close to the top three, Al Gore with 9 percent, isn't a candidate.

The other good news for Clinton is that Democrats are definitely taking sides. Just 19 percent are undecided, compared with 28 percent of GOP voters asked to pick a presidential favorite.

It seems apparent that Nevada Republicans are looking for a conservative who can win a general election.

How else do you explain a four-way tossup among the three GOP front-runners -- Sen. John McCain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- and former Sen. Fred Thompson, the "Law & Order" star who is considering a run for the White House? If Nevada's Republican faithful have that kind of split now, many may end up not liking their nominee.

And if a few of them stay home on Election Day 2008 as a result, it might be enough to turn battleground Nevada blue.

Clinton can now play the big chip leader among Democrats campaigning in Nevada -- and she might just steal a hand from the Republicans here as well.

Erin Neff's column runs Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.