Democrats should avoid overconfidence to avert November surprise

Things are looking pretty good for the Democrats, right?

In the past month alone, they added nearly 10,300 voters to their rolls here in Nevada. (By contrast, Republicans signed up only 5,252 new voters.) The Democratic advantage over Republicans in the state has grown to 64,635, the largest it’s been at this point in a presidential election year, including 2008 when U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were battling for the nomination.

Democrats gained ground in Congressional District 3 (2,600 new voters) and Congressional District 4 (nearly 3,000 new voters). Republicans also saw gains in those districts, but at smaller levels.

Nationally, reality show host and businessman Donald Trump continues his inexorable march toward the nomination as his rivals experience campaign trail meltdowns and lose their ability to do the delegate math. His victory Tuesday in Indiana makes it all the more certain he’ll be the GOP nominee. On the Democratic side, although Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders vows to soldier on until the July convention, Clinton is much closer to clinching the delegates she needs to claim the nomination.

Democrats envision an easy path to victory: Trump (with the highest net negatives in the race of anybody in either party, according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling) versus Clinton (with the second-highest negatives in the race of anybody in either party). U.S. Sen. Harry Reid went on the radio the other day and predicted it was a “fairly certain thing” that Democrats would recapture the Senate.

And there was liberal actor/director Rob Reiner on HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher” on Friday, predicting a Clinton landslide over Trump in November. That brought a desperate, almost angry reaction from the host, who cautioned the audience that anything could happen and that they must show up at the polls.

Maher is right. This is a time for caution and not confidence on the part of Democrats.

Consider: According to the Pew Research Center, Republican turnout in the first 12 primaries of the year is at 17.3 percent of eligible voters, the highest it’s been since at least 1980, when a former actor-turned-governor named Ronald Reagan was seeking the White House. Democratic turnout is up, too — at 11.7 percent — the highest since 2008.

Of course, primary election turnout doesn’t predict general election turnout, let alone victory (otherwise we would have sworn in President Michael Dukakis in 1988). But it does indicate a higher level of interest in the race in general, and Trump’s real-life reality show in particular.

Remember February’s caucus here in Nevada? GOP turnout this year nearly beat the combined turnout of the party’s 2008 and 2012 caucuses combined. And lest you think that was the charisma of candidates such as Dr. Ben Carson or Ohio Gov. John Kasich, recall that Trump’s numbers alone exceeded his top two Nevada challengers (Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz) combined.

Whatever reserves of anger gas Trump has fracked his way into, the vein is wide and deep, more than enough to keep the rage turbines spinning through November. And no matter what else, Trump is clearly an outsider, whereas Clinton is the ultimate insider. Her presence on the ballot will drive at least as many reluctant conservatives to Trump’s camp as Trump’s presence on the ballot will drive establishment Republicans to Clinton.

Certainly, Hillary Clinton remains the definite favorite in a general election matchup with Trump.

But Democrats need to work as hard as they ever have if they want to avoid a November surprise.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and co-host of the show “PoliticsNOW” airing at 5:30 p.m. Sundays on 8NewsNow. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 702-387-5276 or SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.