GOP may have big primary fight, too

Let's get ready to rumble!

As Democrats prepare for a vicious primary race between Dina Titus and state Sen. Ruben Kihuen in the 1st Congressional District, it looks like Republicans might have their own primary battle royale in the new 4th District.

State Sen. Barbara Cegavske announced her candidacy late last month, but Danny Tarkanian, famous Las Vegas son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, is mulling a bid, too. Things got more serious this week when Tarkanian released the results of a survey GOP pollster Glen Bolger conducted for him.

The upshot: Everybody knows Tarkanian (he has 86 percent name recognition) and more people think favorably of him (41 percent) than not (11 percent). For Cegavske, the numbers aren't as good: Just 27 percent know her, with slightly fewer people thinking of her favorably (4 percent) than not (5 percent).

In a general election matchup, the poll found if the election were held today, more people said they would definitely or probably vote for Tarkanian (47 percent) than said they would definitely or probably vote for Democrat Steven Horsford (36 percent). But Horsford, the outgoing state Senate majority leader, would beat Cegavske 43 percent to 32 percent, Bolger found.

If you thought that poll would dissuade Cegavske from considering her bid, well, you don't know Cegavske.

"State Sen. Barbara Cegavske said today that Danny Tarkanian wins polls, but she wins elections," a statement from Cegavske's campaign began.

" 'Nevada's leading Republicans want to nominate a winner to challenge the Democrat in the 4th Congressional District,' Cegavske said. 'I am proud to have the support of Nevada's two Republican Congressmen, Mark Amodei and Joe Heck, and I look forward to working with them to solve the serious problems facing Nevada and the country.' "

Translated, Cegavske's meaning is plain: I'm not getting out the race, and if Tarkanian gets in, he can expect the fight of his life.

Cegavske's statement also contrasted her history of winning a state Senate district that currently has an almost even number of Republicans and Democrats and Tarkanian's political record. (He lost a state Senate campaign to Mike Schneider in 2004, 53.7 percent to 46.3 percent. He lost a statewide campaign for secretary of state to Ross Miller in 2006 by a margin of 48.7 percent to 40.5 percent. And he came in third in the 2010 GOP primary for U.S. Senate, behind Sharron Angle and Sue Lowden.

But that string of losses doesn't dissuade Tarkanian. He looked at the race closely before commissioning the Bolger poll, and he says the numbers support a bid.

"This isn't just something that I jumped into," Tarkanian said. "I did all this due diligence."

According to Tarkanian's figures, the voter-registration gap in the district has shrunk considerably since a panel of special masters drew it this year. And while the advantage is still Democratic, it's a race that a Republican could win. Tarkanian said rural Democrats know him from his bids for secretary of state and U.S. Senate, and that they tend to vote more conservatively than their urban counterparts, who are more likely to go with Horsford.

"I wouldn't get into this race if I thought I didn't have a decent shot at winning it," Tarkanian says. "I absolutely want to do it."

But he's not in yet. Tarkanian says he has to discuss the prospect with his wife, Amy, who just happens to be chairwoman of the state Republican Party. That job would at least create the perception of a conflict in a Republican primary face-off. Personal finances are also a factor, Tarkanian says.

If he does decide to get in, he'll no doubt be confronted with his past losses. Bolger polled that issue and found that in a matchup with Cegavske, 12 percent of voters were either less likely or much less likely to support him as a result, less than the 15 percent who told Bolger they were more likely to vote for him as a result.

Plus, Tarkanian says, his losses in tough statewide races (against Miller, the son of a popular former governor, and in the high-profile Republican primary against Lowden and Angle) were more difficult than Cegavske's wins in a single state Senate district.

But Ryan Erwin, Cegavske's campaign consultant, notes that she's won more than just Republicans in her state Senate district, and that performance will carry over to the larger congressional bid. "It's the kind of candidate she is," he said, able to attract conservative Democrats and independents without compromising her conservative values.

"She's in this. She believes she can win," Erwin said. "Anyone can get in the race, but she's no shrinking violet."

That's putting it mildly. And it means Democrats may not be the only ones with a heated fight in the family come 2012.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and author the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/SteveSebelius or reach him at (702) 387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.