In the season of hope, everybody thinks this time will be different

Democrats and Republicans seem to agree: The 2015 Legislature will finally build a serious education budget and pass a comprehensive plan to get it done.

So why do I see Lucy with the football, inviting Nevada to give it a good kick?

Sen. Michael Roberson, R-Henderson, running in the hopes of becoming majority leader in the 2015 session, says he believes firmly the Legislature will address the issue next year.

“We’re going to have to spend more money,” he told the Review-Journal editorial board Thursday. “Make no mistake, we’re going to spend more on education in 2015.”

Roberson’s preferred alternative is one he first introduced in 2013 — a tax on gold mining companies that’s contingent on the passage of Question 2, a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would delete a cap on the net proceeds of minerals tax. But Roberson frankly acknowledges his mining tax is but one part of the solution.

Some Democrats agree. Sen. Justin Jones, D-Las Vegas, said he believes Republicans are serious about finding more money for Nevada’s schools, including Gov. Brian Sandoval, who is running for a second and final term. And Democrats are willing to do their part, too.

“I feel like the governor is going to want to do something meaningful on this issue of education funding,” Jones told the editorial board Wednesday.

Looming over the discussion is The Education Initiative, which will appear on the November ballot as Question 3. It’s a teachers union-sponsored 2 percent tax on business revenues, starting when a company earns $1 million.

If Question 3 passes, the discussion obviously changes. State schools will get about $750 million more per year. And at least one state lawmaker — state Sen. Tick Segerblom, D-Las Vegas — said at the end of last week’s Tesla incentive special session that the rapidity with which lawmakers catered to the electric carmaker was the most powerful argument to pass The Education Initiative.

“I think this proves once and for all that this body is incapable of raising taxes,” Segerblom said.

History shows he’s got a point: Nevada lawmakers have rejected all manner of tax increases in the past 14 years, including 2003’s gross receipts tax (a payroll tax was adopted instead). A business income tax repeatedly introduced by the late Assemblywoman Peggy Pierce never went anywhere, and a 2011 version of a margins tax was introduced so late in the session it never took hold. A net profits tax sought by the teachers union was rejected by the state Supreme Court.

If The Education Initiative fails, what are the odds lawmakers will cite that vote as a reason not to pass any kind of business tax in 2015? Jones and Roberson may be optimistic. Sandoval may be ready to take on yet another big challenge (or, in a cynical view, burnish his legacy). Some in the Legislature may even worry about how badly they’d look for rushing to give a $1.3 billion gift basket to a company that makes $70,000 electric cars.

But really, when have appearances ever mattered before?

In the changing of the political seasons, we’re rapidly approaching Hope, when lawmakers, lobbyists, pundits and activists start to believe that this time, things might be different. This time, the perfect alignment of political realities will break through the usual collection of forces that thwart progress. This time, the situation is so bad, no one could believe the Legislature would leave Carson City without really addressing the problem. This time, a paltry, ill-fitting patch that keeps things together for the next two years just won’t do.

The trouble is, Nevada has seen this time too many times. The story never changes, only the actors.

And it wasn’t that great a story to begin with.

If we had a nickel for every Democrat who said The Education Initiative was a “flawed solution,” but who claimed they fully support more funding, well, we wouldn’t need The Education Initiative. That’s something to consider carefully before trusting that this time, the Legislature isn’t going to yank that football out of the way at the last second. Again.

Steve Sebelius is a Las Vegas Review-Journal political columnist who blogs at SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 702-387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.