STEVE SEBELIUS: A tale of two governors

On paper, California Gov. Gavin Newsom looks much safer than his Nevada counterpart, Steve Sisolak.

California is a much more populous and much more Democratic state. At last report, 46 percent of the more than 22 million voters in the Golden State were Democrats and just 24 percent Republicans. (Nearly 24 percent are also registered as having “no political party.”)

In Nevada, it’s much closer: 36 percent of the 1.8 million voters are Democrats, nearly 32 percent are Republicans, and more than a quarter are registered as nonpartisan.

California is home to some of the largest and most expensive media markets in the country, in Los Angeles (No. 2 on Nielsen’s list) and San Francisco (No. 6). You’ve got to skip down to No. 39 to get to Las Vegas.

California has been the launchpad for many national political careers (former Gov. Ronald Reagan was president, as was former Sen. Richard Nixon, and former Sen. Kamala Harris is now vice president). The highest-ranking Nevadan ever to serve in Washington, D.C., was Sen. Harry Reid, the majority leader.

So if you had to guess which state’s governor would be more likely to be recalled, you’d probably think Sisolak.

But you’d be wrong.

In fact, Sisolak has survived three attempted recalls, none of which gathered anywhere close to the the minimum 243,995 valid signatures needed to qualify.

In California, Newsom is on the verge of seeing a recall qualify. With a deadline of Wednesday, recallers were closing in on the required 1.4 million valid signatures necessary to put Newsom’s career on the ballot.

What gives? Do Nevadans love their governor more than Californians? (In the recent Nevada Poll conducted by the Review-Journal, Sisolak’s approval was 48 percent. His handling of the coronavirus pandemic was rated approvingly by 53 percent.)

In California, however, Newsom’s approval rating is even higher — 54 percent in February — although that’s down significantly from the 64 percent he logged in May.

Newsom also did better on the ballot. When he was elected in 2018, he got 61.9 percent of the vote, while his Republican challenger drew 38.1 percent. Sisolak defeated his Republican challenger by only 4 percentage points (albeit in a five-person race).

Could it be the hair? Are Californians jealous of their governor’s perfect coif, something Nevada’s electorate doesn’t envy about their chief executive? (Sorry, governor, and yes, I know I’m not one to talk on that subject.)

Maybe it’s because recalls are a popular form of recreation in California, behind surfing and skiing. From 1913 to the present, 55 recalls have been filed against California governors, from Reagan to George Deukmejian to both Edmund and Jerry Brown. Newsom alone has had six since he was elected.

And unlike Nevada, California recalls are more fun, because of the large pool of celebrities. The only successful recall against a Golden State governor came in 2003, when incumbent Gray Davis was replaced by actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who survived a field of 135 other contenders. Who knows? Maybe it’s time for a Gov. Kardashian?

But seriously, folks. There are a few factors that may explain Newsom’s predicament.

First, the threshold for recall of a state official in California is much lower: Signatures from just 12 percent of the voters who cast ballots in the last general election are enough to trigger a recall. In Nevada, it’s 25 percent.

Second, in California, the Newsom recall is better organized and better funded, with more than $3 million raised. In Nevada, three different groups filed papers to recall Sisolak, and total fundraising for all three combined couldn’t buy a decently equipped Honda Civic.

Third, although both Newsom and Sisolak were accused of skirting coronavirus restrictions, their violations were not the same. Sisolak ate at a restaurant that had live music (but insisted that it was allowed under COVID restrictions). Newsom met with a group that included a lobbyist at the French Laundry in Yountville, California, one of the most exclusive restaurants in the United States.

Lesson: Don’t break the rules you set for others, but if you do, definitely don’t do it at a place where a meal costs as much as a mortgage payment.

People are undoubtedly frustrated after a year of coronavirus restrictions. A recall is a handy place to channel that frustration. And it’s hard to defend yourself because there’s no way to really know how many lives were actually saved because of coronavirus rules.

It’s not certain Newsom will face voters in a recall, and it’s obvious that Sisolak won’t. But when it comes to betting which governor would come closer, maybe it does make sense. Sisolak may have presided over a shuttered Strip, but Newsom closed Disneyland.

Contact Steve Sebelius at SSebelius@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0253. Follow @SteveSebelius on Twitter.