STEVE SEBELIUS: Pickard’s unforced error may be a flop in 2022

For a guy who won his election by just 24 votes, Nevada state Sen. Keith Pickard was always walking a tightrope without a net.

The win by Pickard, R-Henderson, wasn’t just a garden variety close race. It denied Democrats a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate.

So, if there was ever a time for a Nevada politician to be fleet of foot, it was Pickard.

How’s that going? Could be better.

In politics the worst wounds are self-inflicted and, in Pickard’s case, the running with scissors began during the first special session in July. Democrats proposed limiting the deductions enjoyed by the mining industry, which is otherwise protected by a tax cap enshrined in the state constitution.

The Assembly passed a bill, but in the Senate, an initial vote failed, with all Republicans opposed. (Because the bill would increase state revenue, it required that two-thirds supermajority.)

But Democrats, after talking with Pickard, amended the bill to protect mining operations with gross proceeds of less than $10 million per year and dedicated the new money to schools. The cap would have exempted all but 38 of the state’s 104 mining companies.

Pickard came out in support of the amended bill. But before a vote could be held, Republicans called a meeting and Pickard changed his mind. “I had every intention of voting for it until I sat with my (Republican) caucus this morning who showed me a better option,” Pickard said.

Flip.

It’s not surprising that a Republican would consider raising taxes on mining. Pickard’s predecessor — fellow Republican Michael Roberson — crafted a constitutional amendment that would have erased the tax cap, but it barely failed with Nevada voters, losing by 3,209 votes out of more than 534,000 cast.

Pickard said in an interview that he switched his vote last year because he was told the bill would lead to layoffs. He said he’s had to lay people off, and he couldn’t bear to see jobs lost during the pandemic.

Then again, mining companies always warn of layoffs with increased taxation. The fact is, you can’t just mine for minerals such as gold anywhere. Nevada produces an outsize share of the precious metal. And mining is a countercyclical business — when tourism is down, mining is up, and additional taxes could bring in revenue when it’s most needed.

On Wednesday, Pickard gave an interview to The Associated Press, saying he regrets his reversal on the 2020 deductions bill and would now vote in favor of limiting deductions.

“That was a mistake; I shouldn’t have voted against it. I shouldn’t have done it, but I let my emotions get the best of me,” Pickard told the AP. “I should not have voted against the mining tax because politically it killed me.”

Flop.

Pickard, however, says he’s being consistent: He supported limiting deductions for big mining companies last year and still does, provided the money goes to schools and small miners are protected. But he said on Thursday he wouldn’t commit to voting for any bill until he’s seen it, although the AP quotes him as saying he would definitely vote for it.

Smart move politically, but also: flip.

For a few reasons, Pickard’s vote isn’t as important this time around. Republicans picked up another seat in the Senate in the 2020 elections, so the chamber is now divided 12-9. Pickard’s is no longer the lone swing vote. In order to pass a deductions bill, Democrats will need two defectors. And it’s not even clear such a bill will be brought forward.

Pickard’s re-election would have been an Everest-style climb even under the best of circumstances. Democrats were always coming for him, and now they have the flip-flop issue. Republicans can’t be pleased with his willingness to vote for a tax opposed by most of them (who represent rural Nevada, mining country).

Meanwhile, as Pickard himself acknowledges, his own constituents are upset at his no vote from last summer. It’s not unfair for them to ask, “What does Keith Pickard really believe?”

And on top of all that, he faces an autumn redistricting that will see Democrats try to stock his Henderson district with more Democratic voters.

It doesn’t mean Pickard’s re-election is impossible — more and more people summit Everest every climbing season. It just means the climb will be much more difficult, certainly harder than it would have been had he not taken every side of the deduction question.

That generally means one thing for an endangered pol at the next election.

Flop.

Contact Steve Sebelius at SSebelius@reviewjournal.com. Follow @SteveSebelius on Twitter.

A previous version of this column misstated Pickard’s margin of victory. He won the 2018 election by 24 votes. It also misstated which party gained a state Senate seat in the 2020 elections; Republicans won an additional seat.