Trump: King of Nevada’s caucus

Say what you like about the political performance art that is the Donald Trump presidential campaign, but don't say it's not a ratings winner.

Last week, Trump became unquestionably the King of the Nevada Republican Caucus, the highest vote-getter in Silver State caucus history, and the driver of the highest turnout ever recorded in the GOP event.

Consider this: Trump earned 34,531 votes in Tuesday's caucus. That's more people than the entire voter turnout of 2012. It's more than his two chief rivals — Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz — combined. And it happened in a caucus in which almost as many people participated as the last two caucuses combined. (Republican turnout was 75,215; Nevada Democrats, by contrast, saw 84,000 voters turn out in their Feb. 20 caucus.)

Up until now, the unlikely Nevada GOP caucus king was Mitt Romney, who took 51 percent of the vote in 2008 in a field of six other candidates and 50 percent in 2012, when he faced three rivals.

But even if you add up every vote Romney has ever received in Nevada, Trump nearly beat him in a single election against four other candidates. (Trump has objected to media types adding vote totals together, but I suspect he won't mind that statistic.) Oh, and while we're on the subject, Romney has another rival besides Trump when it comes to caucus stats: Rubio's 2016 total beat Romney's 2012 performance by nearly 1,500 votes.

Historically, Nevada Republicans are batting .500 when it comes to predicting the ultimate party nominee; in 2008, Romney won, but Arizona Sen. John McCain (who came in third, behind then-Texas Congressman Ron Paul) won the nomination. In 2012, Romney won Nevada's caucus and the nomination.

Trump's overwhelming popularity in Nevada not only drove the higher turnout, it also made the race for No. 2 the real story of the night. Rubio eked out a narrow victory over Cruz, 23.9 percent to 21.4 percent, a difference in terms of actual votes of 1,861 people.

The results of Nevada's caucuses aren't just dismaying to people who think Trump would be a disaster as president. They're also disconcerting to conservatives who have repeatedly pointed out that Trump is not one of them, and never has been. Whether it's his bi-partisan political giving, his off-and-on embrace of single-payer health care, his support of Planned Parenthood, his record on gun rights or his evolution on abortion rights, conservatives see little to trust in Trump. And his rhetoric about being able to cut deals once he arrives in the White House does little to reassure the right that he'd govern as anything other than a squishy moderate.

The prospect of a Trump-led Republican Party strikes fear into the heart of many members of the GOP, which explains talk of a brokered political convention. Seasoned vets fear that Trump could lose not just the 2016 election, but seriously injure Republicans up and down the ticket, as Democrats gleefully ask whether candidates "agree with Trump" on various issues. (Then again, that may be a harder question to pose than many think, since Trump campaigns in neither poetry nor prose, but in Post-It Notes.)

So what, then, explains Trump's overwhelming popularity, demonstrated so conclusively in Nevada's caucus? Trump's background is not in politics, but business, and more specifically, show business. He's good on camera, and he's got his character down pat. Americans are suckers for reality shows, and this year, politics has finally become the ultimate reality show, the inevitable denouement to expanding frustration with government's failures and diminished attention spans when it comes to real solutions.

Reality TV is not reality, but so far, many Americans aren't troubling with the distinction. And when it comes to ratings, Trump is clearly king.

— Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and co-host of the show "PoliticsNOW," airing at 5:30 p.m. Sundays on 8NewsNow. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 702-387-5276 or SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.