With no lines yet drawn, some pols are running on faith
Imagine the scene, between political supplicant and would-be donor.
Supplicant: "Hey, I'm running for Congress. Could you donate to me?"
Would-be donor: "Sure! Who are you running against?"
Supplicant: "I'm not really sure."
Would-be donor: "Oh, well, how's the race shaping up? How many more Democrats are there in your district than Republicans?"
Supplicant: "Wish I knew."
Would-be donor: "Well, you've been in office awhile. How many of the voters who supported you in the past will be in your new district?"
Supplicant: "I have no idea. I hope a lot."
Would-be donor: "Well, what's your win number? Have you identified your voters so you'll be able to get them to the polls on Election Day?"
Supplicant: "We'll be doing that as soon as they tell me where the district actually is."
Would-be donor: (Silence.)
That kind of awkward conversation will shortly be taking place between incumbents, challengers, and their fund-raising targets, since the Nevada Legislature and Gov. Brian Sandoval couldn't agree on a redistricting plan.
As a result, new political boundaries will be drawn by a Carson City judge, with an appeal to the Nevada Supreme Court a possible outcome. And because races are expensive and modern campaigns have a lot of moving parts, politicians just can't wait for jurists to work.
So they're running now, pretty much on faith.
"You've got to sell yourself," says Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, who on Monday declared his intent to run for Congress. "A lot of these people are going to know me."
That's about all they'll know, however. Oceguera says he'll start grassroots organizing from the ground up, starting at his home off Warm Springs Road and the Las Vegas Beltway, and work out from there.
The same goes for former Rep. Dina Titus, who resigned from the U.S. Civil Rights Commission on Friday in anticipation of announcing a bid to return to Congress. Titus says she's represented most of the valley, either as a state senator or a congresswoman.
"I'm no stranger to anyone in Southern Nevada," said Titus. She says she'll run for office in whatever district contains the greatest number of her former constituents, wherever in the valley they might live.
According to the Constitution, representatives need only live in the state they seek to represent. But the practical reality is that any well-run campaign needs to know exactly how many votes it will take to win, who those voters are and how it will get them to the polls. And until they see final district lines, that part of the campaign isn't possible.
Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian immediately criticized Oceguera for deciding to run " before even understanding or caring about the constituency he claims to want to represent." But that's a stretch. Oceguera's home will almost certainly be in the district he ends up running in, and he's represented those neighbors for 12 years in the Assembly. The same goes for Titus, who still fields calls from former constituents looking for help with federal problems.
Besides, would-be incumbents such as Republican state Sen. Mark Amodei, who's running in a special election to represent the 2nd Congressional District, don't know where their new district boundaries will be, either. Does Amodei not understand or care about his potential future constituents? Of course he does.
About the only thing the Republicans and Democrats do agree on is that it would have been a lot more convenient to know where they'll be running before they got into the race. For now, they'll just have to take it on faith.
Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist, and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/SteveSebelius or reach him at 387-5276 or at SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.
