VICTOR JOECKS: What to make of Nevada’s early voting numbers

The “Reid Machine” may be dead. Just look at Nevada’s early voting numbers.

As of mid-Thursday, more than 870,000 Nevadans have voted early, whether by mail or in-person. This likely represents more than 60 percent of the total voters. Nearly 340,000 Republicans have voted, compared with almost 298,000 Democrats. That gives the GOP about a 42,000-voter advantage.

This is a reversal from four years ago. At this point in 2020, Democrats had a more than 43,000-voter edge. That’s an 85,000 voter swing. For context, President Joe Biden won Nevada by fewer than 34,000 votes.

Put a different way: At this point in 2020, Democrats had a 4.8 point advantage in turnout. As of Thursday morning, Republicans had a 4.9 point advantage. That’s a swing of nearly 10 points. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Nevada by 2.4 percentage points.

The biggest difference is in Clark County mail ballots. At this point in 2020, Democrats had about a 100,000-voter lead in that category. On Thursday morning, Democrats’ lead in this category was around 54,000 voters. A sharp decline in the number of Democrats voting by mail accounts for most of the shift.

Here’s what to expect over the next few days. As mail ballots come in, Democrats should chip away at Republicans’ voter lead. Republicans should outvote Democrats on Election Day. When all the ballots are counted, Republicans probably will have outvoted Democrats in Nevada. In 2020, around 40,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in total.

That doesn’t guarantee a Donald Trump victory in Nevada, although he’s in a very strong position. Down-ballot races probably will be close. Republicans could win every federal race on the ballot or lose them all except Rep. Mark Amodei’s seat in Northern Nevada. Numerous legislative races could be decided by a couple hundred votes or less.

Regardless of these outcomes, one thing is certain. Nevada is trending red. In October 2020, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Nevada by more than 87,000 voters. According to political consultant Jeremy Hughes, Democrat’s voter registration lead is now under 10,000.

That’s a major reversal and Nevada Republicans partially have Democrats to thank for it. For years, the GOP struggled mightily to combat the Reid Machine, which organized and funded Democrats’ superior voter registration efforts. But from 2017 to 2019, Democrats supported universal voter registration at the DMV and voter registration during early voting and on Election Day. The idea was that these policies would capture even more young voters, who would then vote Democrat.

Instead, DMV sign-ups led to a surge in nonpartisan registrations, not new Democrats. This makes it harder for Democrats to know which voters to target for turnout efforts. Because Republicans weren’t as proficient in registering voters, this hasn’t hurt them as much. Same-day voter registration means GOP-leaning citizens can now show up and vote even if they weren’t previously registered.

Nevada Democrats unintentionally gutted the voter registration edge that the Reid Machine produced for them. Political irony doesn’t get much funnier than that.

Victor Joecks’ column appears in the Opinion section each Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Contact him at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on X.