Slicing Iraq into thirds

Delaware Sen. Joe Biden is in the second tier of Democratic candidates for the 2008 presidential nomination. If not the third.

That means the old war horse, who has raised a modest $4 million or so, is holding himself available as a compromise candidate should the party find itself deadlocked in the battle between his younger Senate colleagues, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

After all, that's how the nation got Abe Lincoln. And Warren G. Harding.

But one of the remaining benefits of the political process is that from time to time a candidate -- particularly one running from behind and thus anxious for attention -- throws caution to the winds and introduces an idea.

Sen. Biden did that during a campaign visit to Las Vegas on Saturday, advancing a plan to stabilize that turbulent remnant of the old Ottoman Empire which was drawn onto a blank map by British government cartographers and dubbed "Iraq" nearly 90 years ago.

The artificial nation should be allowed to fragment into three natural parts, Sen. Biden proposes -- largely autonomous separate countries for the southern Shia, the central Sunnis, and the northern Kurds.

"There's no possibility, in your lifetime or mine, that there will be a strong central government in Baghdad. ... Everybody says there's a need for a political solution, yet no one's offered a political solution except me," the senator said in an interview.

There is one event that could prove the senator wrong -- the rise of a new dictator on the model of Saddam Hussein.

Failing that, however, he's correct. Yes, a Shiite South Iraq would likely align itself with Iran. But the whole of Iraq could do that, the way things are unfolding now.

Yes, the Turks could be expected to object to an independent Kurdistan, given that they have their own disaffected Kurdish minority in the south.

But Istanbul lost most of its leverage over such questions in Washington when it refused to allow U.S. forces to pass through on their way to Baghdad a few years back -- rendering America's quick victory over Saddam all the more impressive.

In a campaign dominated by cautious advisers coaching the leading candidates to take as few risks as possible, it's unlikely any of the four main contenders will immediately risk advancing Sen. Biden's plan. But in about eight months, Americans will have tired of the "who can raise more money and still say nothing new" Kabuki. Whoever's running fifth will see the need to make a bold proposal or two -- or fall by the wayside.

There are only two ways to end a civil war. Either one side wins -- usually in a considerable bloodbath -- or the warring regions are allowed to go their separate ways. (No one's still trying to hold together Yugoslavia, or the USSR.)

So long as some neutral broker arranges a way for Iraq's oil to keep flowing -- and for all three rump states to share the revenue -- Sen. Biden's plan makes good sense.