Window of opportunity

You probably expect me to gloat today, to revel in the Democratic ascendancy and rejoice in the diminution of the Republican Party.

It's tempting, but I'm not going to do it.

Barack Obama's decisive victory over John McCain is worthy of celebration, and not just because he will be the first African-American president. It's also worthy of celebration because Obama was the better candidate with better ideas and a better chance of improving the nation's economy and our standing in the world.

But this is not the time for a victory dance in the end zone. The challenges facing the new president and other new Democratic leaders -- including those in Nevada -- are too daunting.

Obama will take office at a time of extreme national distress. The dire state of the economy -- from the housing crisis to unemployment to health care -- requires quick and aggressive action. The failed occupation of Iraq and the revival of the demented Taliban in Afghanistan require new approaches and the hard work of rebuilding U.S. relationships around the globe.

For Obama, it could hardly be a worse time to be elected president. The nation's problems are large and complicated. His odds of success are long.

What's more, a fair segment of the people who voted for Obama did so on the premise that they would give the young guy a chance, see what he can do. They were hoping -- without much hard evidence to go on -- that he will live up to the hype.

What that could mean: If Obama doesn't expeditiously deliver a stronger economy, a dramatically reduced presence in Iraq and a significantly improved situation in Afghanistan, those voters who gave him a shot could turn on him.

Today, many Americans are gushing with good feelings over electing a black president. It was historic, heartening and progressive. But before too long, the afterglow will wear off and people will expect some signs that an Obama presidency is more than a mere fact of historical significance.

If Jackie Robinson had been a bench-warmer rather than a bona fide all-star, I suspect his breaking of Major League Baseball's color line would have meant a lot less.

Obama and the Democratically controlled Senate and House will have a window of opportunity to show what they can accomplish. One of the key players in this drama will be Nevada's Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader. If Obama, Reid and the others blow it, you watch: Today's seemingly moribund Republican Party will be poised for a dramatic return.

I hate to be a killjoy amid the positive vibes emanating from Obama's victory. I have been as inspired as anybody by his eloquence and demeanor, as well as his massive and diverse constituency. I just worry that it's going to be a rough road for Obama. He knows it, too. In his victory speech Tuesday evening, he said:

"Even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime -- two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century."

Obama, I believe, has the qualities needed to tackle these problems maturely and assertively. But I fear the American people won't have the patience that may be required to measure tangible progress.

In Nevada, where the constitution requires a balanced budget, the economic downturn is wreaking painful and enduring damage to government institutions, services and programs. Democrats will have a veto-proof majority in the Assembly and a 12-9 advantage in the Senate, giving them a degree of power they have not enjoyed in decades. But what can they realistically do except cut the hell out of the budget?

Increasing taxes is a legitimate option to counter the gaping shortfall, but it seems unlikely the newly empowered Democrats are going to prove the stereotype in their first legislative session. Besides the political risks, whatever tax increase that Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford and Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley might support most likely could not raise enough money to still the budget ax.

So Nevada Democrats are damned if they do and damned if they don't. If they raise taxes, they will hand ammunition to the Republicans. And if they don't raise taxes, they will be forced to administer massive budget cuts, abandoning their core beliefs regarding public education and the active role of government in society.

It seems very possible that Obama's victory could spur the economy sooner rather than later. Buoyed by hope, consumer confidence could rise, as well as Las Vegas tourism. Add in Obama's middle-class tax cut, an ambitious economic stimulus package and a reduction of troops and expenditures in Iraq, and you have a recipe for success. Then again, this grand plan could fall apart under a hailstorm of cynical partisanship in Washington. Sadly, history suggests this is a likely scenario.

Obama has an opportunity to upend our recent tendency toward gridlock, but I trust you can see why I'm not gloating today.

Geoff Schumacher (gschumacher@ reviewjournal.com) is publisher of Las Vegas CityLife, owned by the same company as the Review-Journal. He also is the author of "Sun, Sin & Suburbia: An Essential History of Modern Las Vegas" and "Howard Hughes: Power, Paranoia & Palace Intrigue." His column appears Friday.